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By Jonathan Bales

In the first six parts of my Training Camp Battles Series, I analyzed the future of the nickel linebacker, defensive end, free safety, left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback positions.

Today, I will take a look at the current battle between tight ends Martellus Bennett and John Phillips for the No. 2 job behind starter Jason Witten.  Recently, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett seemed to indicate that the competition for the second tight end spot is quite open.  He said there will be “healthy competition” at every position and when referring to Phillips, Garrett claimed:

Every opportunity he gets, he seems to make the catch, make the block, do the little thing that helps our football team. He did that really all throughout last year in a limited role, and he has a little bit more of a role with Martellus out here the first four or five practices. He’s doing it. It’s not always flashy, but he always seems to make the block or make the catch or do something that helps our offense.

With Bennett currently sidelined due to an ankle injury, Phillips has stepped up.  On Monday, he had what Jason Witten labeled “his best practice ever,” followed by perhaps an even better performance on Tuesday.

Will the less flashy second-year man be able to overtake Bennett for the backup tight end spot?  Let’s take a look at the scouting reports.

Scouting Reports

• Martellus Bennett

Bennett may still need to mature off of the field before he can flourish on it.  He isn’t a bad kid by any means, but he sometimes does boneheaded things.  He’s even led me to question if Dallas would be better off without him.

On the field, Bennett is actually a little underrated (at least in terms of blocking).  Take a look at what I wrote about him in my 2009 Tight End Grades:

Blocking:  B+

Despite the general consensus among fans that Bennett had a horrible 2009 season, he actually performed quite well as a blocker.  It is ironic that such an athletic player has developed faster as a blocker than a pass-catcher, but perhaps the way in which Witten goes about his business is rubbing off on Bennett.

Like Witten, though, we’d like to see Bennett’s penalty count decrease.  Yes, it is difficult for tight ends to often block larger defensive ends, but a few of Bennett’s penalties were offensive pass interference.

Receiving:  C-

Bennett obviously regressed as a pass-catcher in 2009.  He caught only 51.7% of balls thrown his way, and just 15/21 on-target passes (71.4%).  Bennett doesn’t have poor hands, so we think this was due more to a lack of concentration than anything else.

Bennett is dangerous after catching the ball (4.8 yards-after-catch-per-reception–wow, that is a lot of hyphens), so the key to his 2010 success will be mastering the mental aspect of the game so he can let his athleticism take over.

• John Phillips

Also from my 2009 Tight End Grades:

Blocking:  C-

Phillips’ pass-blocking sample size (only 26 snaps) is too small to draw meaningful conclusions, but not so for his run-blocking sample (126 snaps).  In a study I performed on the effectiveness of fullback Deon Anderson, I compared Anderson’s stats to those of Phillips.  What I discovered (listed below) was that Phillips was far inferior to Anderson as a blocker, at least out of the backfield.

The Cowboys averaged nearly two more yards-per-carry with Anderson in the game as compared to Phillips, and, surprisingly, .2 more yards-per-pass.  Phillips’ rookie play was a pleasant surprise in 2009, but he has a long way to go before he can be considered a dominant blocker.

Receiving:  B-

It is tough to grade Phillips as a receiver because of his limited sample size (only seven regular season catches).  Rather than use purely statistics, this grade is based more on what I saw from Phillips on film.  He displayed good route-running ability and solid hands (zero drops and a natural receiver).  He averaged an impressive 6.6 yards-after-catch and showed he is capable of being an adequate runner after receiving the football.

Pros/Cons of Starting. . .

• Martellus Bennett

Bennett is more athletic than Phillips and offers a higher upside.  He has the potential to be an outstanding all-around tight end.  The problem is that he suffers from frequent mental lapses and has yet to cash in on that potential.

Bennett’s skill set makes him more of an in-line tight end/slot player.  He can be split out wide and, although he struggled there last season, possesses the ability to play as a sort of “big receiver.”

The addition of Dez Bryant means the Cowboys will likely use more three-receiver sets and spread formations, though, so Bennett’s snaps could be limited.  After all, who would you prefer line up outside for the ‘Boys on 3rd and 7:  Bryant or Bennett?

• John Phillips

Like Bennett, Phillips can be moved around the field.  He will not flourish out wide, however, and is even inferior to Bennett as an in-line tight end at this time.  Phillips does have the ability to play as an H-Back (a tight end/fullback hybrid), however, which Bennett really does not.  This could be of use to a Dallas offense that figures to be more spread out in 2010.

Some have been predicting the Cowboys might even retain no true fullback, using Phillips at the spot when needed.  However, as I stated above, Phillips has a long way to go as a blocker, so expect Deon Anderson to hold onto his job–for now.

Advantage

The Bennett/Phillips battle is an interesting one due to the varying nature of their skill sets.  Bennett is currently a much better blocker and has the ability to succeed out wide, but the addition of Dez Bryant could make the former trait less valuable (if the team is in less two-tight end sets) and the latter irrelevant altogether.

Right now, Phillips is making up ground on Bennett, but he is also competing just as much with fullback Deon Anderson for playing time.  I believe Anderson is the superior blocker, but Phillips obviously offers more athleticism as a legitimate pass-catching threat.

Once Bennett returns from injury, it will be interesting to see how offensive coordinator Jason Garrett splits up the tight ends reps.  You can probably expect Bennett to regain his No. 2 gig.  Don’t think for a second the coaching staff doesn’t value his blocking ability.

Bennett is on a much shorter leash this year than in the previous two, however, meaning an outstanding preseason from Phillips, particularly as a blocker, could win him the job.

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By Jonathan Bales

Throughout my film study articles, I have chronicled the trends of the Cowboys in certain specific situations, attempting to isolate the cause of their success or failure.   Some statistics are subjective, such as missed tackles, but I strive to obtain statistics that are objective as possible.

In this study, I will analyze the Cowboys’ weak side runs.  Like prior pieces, there is some “gray area” here.   What is a weak side run?  Is the weak side always opposite the tight end?

For this analysis, I have designated the weak side of the formation as that which is opposite the tight end and has less than three skill position players.  Thus, in “Twins Left,” the right side is the strong side. In “Twins Left, Weak Left” (below), however, the left side is strong.

If a formation has no tight end, the strong side is simply the side with the most skill position players.  Also, a multitude of formations have no strong or weak side, such as “Ace” (below).   These formations were not counted toward my results.

The findings I gathered are listed below.   The Cowboys averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry on weak side runs, compared to just 4.7 yards-per-carry on strong side runs.

Why did the Cowboys have more success running weak side than strong?   One possibility is that it surprises the defense. Dallas ran weak side on just 19.5 percent of all run plays. Thus, with the defense generally anticipating a strong side run, the success rate of running weak side increases despite a lesser number of blockers.

The lack of blockers to the weak side can also be a good thing because defenses generally line up according to the formation.   Less blockers, then, means less people to block, and less chance for mistake.

Still, if this theory is correct, we might expect the Cowboys percentage of big plays to increase significantly when running weak side.  This is actually not the case.  The Cowboys ran for a play of 10+ yards on 15.3 percent of all weak side run plays in 2009, compared to 14.5 percent on all strong side runs. This small difference is not statistically significant enough for us to draw meaningful conclusions.

Further, the percentage of negative runs is also approximately the same (9.4 percent on weak side runs versus 11.0 percent on all strong side runs).

With this lack of outliers, it appears as though weak side runs are just slightly more effective for the Cowboys than strong side runs. The results are not simply skewed by a pair of 80-yard rushes, for example.

How should this information affect the Cowboys and Jason Garrett’s play-calling?  Well, as I detailed in my Witten blocking study, the play-calling should shift until it reaches the “Nash Equilibrium.”   Simply put, this is the point when the overall yards-per-rush will peak.

Jason Garrett will maximize offensive efficiency by always being one step ahead of defensive coordinators.

Note that Garrett cannot simply call all weak side runs because football is a game of opposing minds.   A drastic increase in weak side runs would obviously be met by a large percentage of defensive weak side blitzes.

Instead, game theory suggests Garrett should slowly increase the number of weak side runs until the average yards-per-carry is maximized.

But how will we know when that number is reached?  The answer would be simple if we assumed those people drawing up plays to try to stop the Cowboys offense–the opposing defensive coordinators–were perfectly rational.   In that scenario, the defense would call an increasing number of weak side blitzes until they minimized the overall yards-per-carry.   They would in effect create their own Nash equilibrium.

Of course, defensive coordinators do not always call plays in a rational manner. Their knowledge is not unlimited, and so sometimes they may call too many weak side blitzes or not enough.  Perhaps sometimes the number of weak side blitzes they dial up has no correlation at all with the offenses’s weak side running rates or successes.

Garrett’s job, then, must be to take into account the thoughts and tendencies of defensive coordinators (perhaps easier said than done), and then adjust his play-calling accordingly.   If Team X calls an inordinate amount of weak side blitzes, for example, then the Cowboys own Nash equilibrium will be shifted to include more strong side runs (and vice versa).

Thus, play-calling (or effective play-calling anyway) is not simply about knowing your own players.   It is about successfully predicting the calls of defensive coordinators by knowing their tendencies.   This may sound extremely difficult (and it is from the standpoint of one individual play), but aberrations tend to flatten out over the course of a game in such a way that, despite not knowing individual play calls, a team can assume a “regression to the mean” of sorts where a team’s overall tendencies will always eventually shine through.

For Garrett, this means being one step ahead of the game.  Instead of simply knowing what you want to do, you have to know what your opponent thinks you are going to do, then adjust accordingly.  When playing against a really stealthy coach, you may have to know what he thinks that you think that he thinks about what play you are going to call.

If you are an offensive coordinator and have called three straight weak side runs in a row, for example, your natural inclination may be to deviate from this tendency.  You might do this in an effort to “mix it up.”   But game theory suggests you should take into account the opposition’s thoughts before making a decision.

Perhaps you know that he is thinking that you are thinking that he will call a weak side blitz to combat your recent success. Knowing this, you would assume he may call a strong side blitz (or none at all), and you would be correct.   Thus, despite three straight weak side runs, the best play call is yet another weak side run.

Being “unpredictable” isn’t about changing play calls just for the sake of changing the play, but about adjusting your tendencies according to your opposition’s tendencies to create an environment where potential success will be maximized.

That may be the motto for the 2010 Dallas Cowboys– “maximize your potential.”   Should they do that, the team might just be playing in the first ever home Super Bowl.

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By Jonathan Bales

I recently stated my choices for the Cowboys’ most overrated and underrated players: Gerald Sensabaugh and Kyle Kosier, respectively.  Sensabaugh yielded five touchdowns and a 67.4 percent completion rate, while also missing 15.6 percent of tackles.  Meanwhile, Kosier allowed just one sack all season.  You can click the links above to find out more about why I selected each player.

Those ‘overrated’ and ‘underrated’ designations are nothing more than a math problem:

Actual Value – Public Opinion of Value = Extent to Which Player is Overrated/Underrated

Of course, defining a player’s ‘actual value’ and the value of ‘public opinion’ is quite difficult.  To make the determination a bit more objective, I decided to substitute players’ salaries for ‘public opinion.’

Thus, this article will actually be an attempt to decipher the team’s most overpaid and underpaid players.  It will invoke a value which I shall label “value-per-million dollars.”  In short, each player will be assigned a numerical grade which will result from the following formula:

PFF overall player value / Player’s 2009 cap value = Value-Per-Million

A few notes:

• These values take into account only a player’s 2009 production.
• The salaries used are not entire contracts (as these are sometimes deceiving), but rather the players’ 2009 cap value (as defined by USA Today).
• The specific totals of the player value numbers and final ‘value-per-million’ are irrelevant.  The values themselves have no inherent meaning; that comes through a comparison of final values among players.
• Because the ‘actual values’ are efficiency-based, I have removed some of the players without a large sample size of plays.  For example, Kevin Ogletree, Michael Hamlin, and John Phillips lead the list of most underpaid players because of small salaries, but their overall production is too minor to match that of, say, Anthony Spencer.
• The lowest-rated player, Roy Williams, was used as a baseline for the other player values (which is why he has a value of zero).  Again, the specific numbers are irrelevant.

Analysis

• If these numbers are any indication, the Cowboys made the right moves in releasing Flozell Adams and Ken Hamlin in favor of Doug Free and Alan Ball.  Adams and Hamlin checked in as the second and fourth-most overpaid players, while Free and Ball were the fourth and third most-underpaid.

• We all knew Bobby Carpenter was bad, but here is more evidence.  He is especially poor because his cap charge wasn’t very much ($2.06 million).

• It is surprising to see Terence Newman on the ‘overpaid’ list.  He had an excellent 2009 season, and even PFF rated him as a top-25 cornerback.
  

• It really speaks to DeMarcus Ware’s dominance that he can make the list of most underpaid players despite a larger cap charge.
  

• I expected to see Miles Austin as perhaps the most underrated player, but he only checked in at No. 7.  Of the players above him, only Ware had a greater cap value.
  

The point of this article is to gain general insights into the salary cap/player value relationship.  It is not without its limitations, of course. First, the formula doesn’t account for age or seasons prior to 2009.  Older players such as Keith Brooking aren’t going to break the bank.  Nonetheless, Brooking certainly deserves to be on the most underpaid list, as it relates to 2009.

Secondly, obtaining objective player values is extremely difficult.  I substituted cap values for ‘public opinion values’ to combat one subjective rating, but another still exists.

Most importantly, the formula may reward low salaries too much.  Jason Hatcher, Doug Free, and Alan Ball all played well in 2009, but there is no way they should be ranked ahead of Miles Austin.  All three were, however, due to cap charges about one-third that of Austin’s.

Taking these factors into account, here is my personal (more subjective) list of the Cowboys’ most overpaid and underpaid players.

Player/2009 Cap Charge/Dallas Cowboys Times Grade

Most Overpaid

1. Roy Williams/$5.66 million/D+

2.  Bobby Carpenter/$2.06 million/D+

3.  Flozell Adams/$3.10 million/C-

4.  Patrick Crayton/$2.70 million/C+

5.  Ken Hamlin/$5.81 million/B-

6.  Marion Barber/$2.62 million/C+

7. Marc Colombo/$2.70 million/C+

Most Underpaid

1.  Miles Austin/$1.55 million/A-

2.  Anthony Spencer/$1.42 million/A-

3.  Felix Jones/$1.45 million/A-

4.  Jay Ratliff/$2.55 million/B+

5.  Tashard Choice/$0.50 million/B+

6.  Keith Brooking/$1.90 million/B+

7.  Deon Anderson/$0.49 million/B-

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Dallas Cowboys Training Camp photos courtesy of The Canadian Press, AP, ESPN, and USPresswire.

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By Jonathan Bales

After rookie receiver Dez Bryant brushed off his refusal to carry Roy Williams’ pads as a non-issue, Williams is doing the same:

If he doesn’t want to take the pads, he doesn’t have to take the pads,” said Williams. “It’s not a big deal. We’ll just move on. We talked about it. He wants to concentrate on football. We’re going to let him concentrate on football. But, when we go out to eat, I’m gonna be a little bit more hungry and a little bit more thirsty.

Williams is saying all of the right things, but presumably he is frustrated with Bryant’s refusal.  Williams’ intentions were really to accept Bryant onto the squad and, by invoking a traditional act of “hazing,” attempt to become closer to the rookie.

Bryant views the request as disrespectful, but he is wrong.  The act is not demeaning because there is more meaning to it beyond simply lugging pads a few hundred feet.  Williams, and just about every other rookie in the NFL, went through the same thing.  It’s a tradition that can bond players–particularly ones fighting for the same job.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, Williams isn’t make a huge deal out of the situation.  Let’s hope his attitude doesn’t sour if Bryant continues to miss the point concerning the veteran/rookie relationship.

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Robert Harris.

Surprisingly, Harris is a fairly recent player who I still have zero recollection of. Maybe I’m just getting old. Harris, though, played for the Giants from 1995-99 after spending three seasons with the Minnesota Vikings and posted some impressive numbers.

He had 24 sacks in five seasons spent mostly at left defensive tackle, including 10 in 1997. He also had 129 solo tackles as a Giant. He was a full-time starter his first four seasons in New York.

Other Notables Who Wore No. 97

• Cornelius Griffin (DT, 2000-2003). Had 12.5 sacks in four seasons before moving on to the Washington Redskins as a free agent. Griffin teased the Giants with a five-sack rookie season, but never matched that productivity again until after he left New York. He played 14 games for Washington last season and is still a productive NL player.
• Mathias Kiwanuka wore 97 his first three seasons in New York before switching to 94 last season. He had his best pro season in 2008 while wearing 97, registering eight sacks.
• Warren Thompson, a linebacker, was the first player I can find who wore the 97 jersey as a Giant. He played just three games in 1987, and had two sacks.

It is just a matter of days now before our New York Giants begin training camp at the University at Albany. Camp starts Sunday, Aug. 1 with an afternoon conditioning run. Two-a-day practices begin Monday morning.

If you are planning to head to camp to see any of the practices, check the UAlbany website for updated information and scheduling.

2010 New York Giants Training Camp Schedule

August 1 (Sun.)
Practice: 3:15-5:15 p.m.

August 2 (Mon.)
Practice #1: 8:35-10:35 a.m.
Practice #2: 3:15-5:15 p.m.

August 3 (Tues.)
Practice #1: 8:35-10:35 a.m.
Practice #2: 3:15-5:15 p.m.

August 4 (Wed.)
No Practice

August 5 (Thurs.)
Practice #1: 8:35-10:35 a.m.
Practice #2: 6:05-8:05 p.m.

August 6 (Fri.)
Practice: 2:35-4:35 p.m.

August 7 (Sat.)
Practice #1: 8:35-10:35 a.m.
Practice #2: 6:05-8:05 p.m.

August 8 (Sun.)
No Practice

August 9 (Mon.)
Practice #1: 8:35-10:35 a.m.
Practice #2: 6:05-8:05 p.m.

August 10 (Tues.)
Practice: 2:35-4:35 p.m.

August 11 (Wed.)
Practice #1: 8:35-10:35 a.m.
Practice #2: 6:05-8:05 p.m.

August 12 (Thurs.)
Practice: 10:30-11:30 a.m. (Jog-Thru)

August 13 (Fri.)
Practice #1: 8:35-10:35 a.m.
Practice #2: 6:05-8:05 p.m.

August 14 (Sat.)
Practice: 2:35-4:35 p.m.

August 15 (Sun.)
Practice: 10:00-11:30 a.m. (Jog-Thru)

August 16 (Mon.)
NFL Preseason Game at New York Jets, 8:00 p.m.

August 17 (Tues.)
No Practice

August 18 (Wed.)
Practice: 2:35-4:35 p.m.

August 19 (Thurs.)
Practice: 2:35-4:35 p.m.

August 20 (Fri.)
Practice: 10:30-11:45 a.m. (Jog-Thru)
Camp Ends

August 21 (Sat.)
NFL Preseason Game vs. Pittsburgh, 7:00 p.m.

Rookie safety Chad Jones, badly injured in a car accident about a month ago, was recently released from the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan. He will be back in a few weeks for some more surgery, but for now it’s great news that he’s out and about.

Mike Garafalo has a longer than usual summer questionnaire with Brandon Jacobs. The Giants really need either Jacobs or one of the other running backs to step up and produce this year if they want to return to the playoffs.

Speaking of making the playoffs, “Doc’s Sports Service” takes a fairly in-depth look at the Giants schedule this season. I don’t necessarily agree with his conclusion of another 8-8 season, but there’s some interesting tidbits in there about some schedule quirks that make it a worthwhile read.

Justin Tuck talked with the New York Post, and took a bit of a shot at departed defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan in the process.

Two slightly funny stories popped up in my Google Alerts this morning: first, a story that was apparently written last year, but for some reason popped up again today, talking about how the Giants receivers can’t catch, and using Steve Smith as it’s first example. Not quite as much fun as going back and reading Super Bowl XLII previews that predicted the Patriots would win by 40, but entertaining nonetheless.

Second, apparently Cowboys tight end Martellus Bennett has had some nude photos leaked onto the internet. Don’t worry, I’m not linking to the photos, just the story, in which the only picture of Bennett is him getting upended by two Giants. Now you all have some extra ammo to make fun of the Cowboys with. You’re welcome.

Enjoy your day, Giants fans!

Barry Cofield.

Going through the uniform numbers in the 90s has been interesting. Most of them were not worn before 1987 by New York Giants’ players, and this is another that has been worn by only a handful of players who have had more than a cup of coffee with the team.

Cofield may not be a great player, but he is easily the best Giant to have donned the 96. The fourth-round pick from Northwestern has been a solid contributor at defensive tackle since coming to the team in 2006. He has 6.5 sacks and 115 tackles in his four-year career.

Frank Nicholson (LB, 1987): The first player I can find who wore the No. 96 as a Giant. Played just three games.

Kanavis McGhee (LB, 1991-93): Drafted in the second round in 1991, but never really became an impact player for the Giants. Had just two starts and 1.5 sacks before moving on to Cincinnati and Houston to finish his career.

Jamal Duff (DE, 1996): Had four sacks as a reserve defensive end. Spent 1996 and 1997 playing for Washington.