NFL Bowl – NFL Games Weekly Picks & Predictions

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Jonathan Bales

What a horrid game.  Note that I have yet to review the film, so I should have more answers as to why the Cowboys struggled by tonight or tomorrow.  It may take me some time to regain the mentality needed to be at least somewhat objective.  Here we go. . .

• Let’s start with it.  The excessive celebration penalty was garbage.  Jason Witten handed the ball off to Marc Colombo to spike not as part of a pre-planned team celebration, but simply as a way to allow one of the big fellas–who never get to celebrate–to join in on the fun.  Witten wasn’t even part of the celebration.  The call may be correct by the letter of the rule (although even that is debatable), but it certainly misses the spirit of the rule.  Awful job by the refs.
  

• That call really did change the entire dynamic of the game.  Instead of a probable touchback (Buehler has a higher percentage of touchbacks when kicking right to left on your television screen, which he was doing on the ensuing kickoff), the Cowboys had to kick from their own 15-yard line.  They then allowed a huge return, and a facemask penalty gave the Titans the ball at the Cowboys’ 5-yard line.

• Having that all of that, the Cowboys did have opportunities to win the football game.  First, they shouldn’t have even been in that position.  Penalties are killing this team, and until they stop, the ‘Boys will continue to lose.  Secondly, Dallas could have stopped the kick returner.  Yes, it was a harder task with so much open field, but certainly not impossible.  Third, they still had 3:30 minutes to score after Chris Johnson punched in the final touchdown.  They didn’t, of course, and the bad celebration call seems more important than perhaps it truly is.

• I take issue with another late call which shaped the game: the offensive pass interference call on Miles Austin on the Cowboys’ second-to-last drive.  The play was a playaction look and screen to Dez Bryant.  Austin blocked his man just a fraction of a second before Bryant caught the ball, so again, it is a penalty by the letter of the rule.  But there needs to be some consistency in this call.  Earlier in the game, Austin blocked his guy well downfield and much earlier in the same  play and was not flagged.  If you are going to let him do it then, you have to remain consistent with that call late in the game.

• Miles Austin may be the best receiver in the league right now.  He has everything: speed, size, power, hands, run-after-catch ability.  He’s the total package, and the Cowboys would have gotten blown out yesterday if it wasn’t for him.

• I saw rookie nose tackle Josh Brent in on some plays for Dallas.  He seems to be a steal in the supplemental draft.

• Keith Brooking looks terrible in space.  He’s poor in coverage and has trouble breaking down to tackle when he must cover semi-long distances.  The Cowboys put Jason Williams, then Danny McCray in at nickel linebacker later in the game.  I thought McCray performed really well, but I need to watch some tape.

• If you are going to give Felix Jones more reps, why take them from Tashard Choice?  They should come from Marion Barber, who still doesn’t look explosive, even with adequate rest.

• Leonard Davis was benched early in the game in favor of Montrae Holland.  He performed poorly, but I didn’t think he should be pulled.  Holland is even slower than Davis, and certainly not an upgrade.  If anyone should have been yanked, I thought it was Colombo.  He was getting manhandled the entire first half.  Again, I need to watch the film.

• Bradie James’ short absence from the ballgame reminds us just how important he is to the defense.  The Cowboys replaced him with Leon Williams–quite a downgrade, huh?

• Mike Jenkins had his worst game as a professional.  I’ve never seen him get turned around like that and have such trouble tracking the football.  He has the best ball skills of any Cowboys cornerback, but he looked like an undrafted rookie yesterday.  Orlando Scandrick performed pretty poorly as well, but Terence Newman was his normal Pro-Bowl caliber self.  When he’s healthy, he’s one of the top cover men in the NFL.

• Romo threw three picks, but I thought he played really well considering the amount of pressure that was on him.  The first interception that bounced off of Martellus Bennett’s hands was a bad decision, but the second pick was tipped and the third was forced into coverage due to the game situation (down seven very late in the game).

I will begin looking at the game tape and try to post my game review tonight or tomorrow.

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The Colts released 24-year old safety DaJuan Morgan before the game yesterday.  He played in 2 games for the Colts this year and he had 1 tackle.  The Colts also re-signed 28-year old linebacker Tyjuan Hagler before the game and he played but didn’t get any tackles.  Hagler has played in 2 games for the Colts this year and he has 2 tackles.

Just a few evening New York Giants notes for you. I know you just can’t wait for the Jets on Monday Night Football, so here is some better stuff to think about.

Tom Coughlin sees the confidence beginning to develop with his players.

“As that develops, because of the result, the past couple weeks being very good examples, they get a good feeling about one another,” Coughlin said. “You always have to be able to count on the guy to your right and to your left. I like the way I keep referring to our team developing, and I like the way that is taking place in terms of the way we’re there for each other and keeping track. If the offense is on the field, the defense and special teams is very much involved in what’s going on, and they’re the guys out on the field congratulating when the play or series is over. I like that, and that’s taking place as a whole with our team, but also with the offense, defense, and special teams.”

Hakeem Nicks had a pretty mature response for a second-year player when asked to discuss how the Giants have rebounded from a 1-2 start.

“It’s good that we’ve got momentum, and we’ve got to keep going up from here. We’ve just got to keep on preparing well throughout the week and then going out there on Sundays and playing,” Nicks said. “I think we came together as a team. We worry about what’s going on in our locker room and take things for what it is, and we know what we need to work on and get better at.”

Coughlin’s recent Jay Fund dinner for families of children with cancer was an overwhelming success.

Two victories in a row over good football teams, pushing their record to 3-2, and the sun is shining again for the New York Giants and their fans (meaning US!!).

Scan through the comments of the earlier posts here today at Big Blue View, and you can see that the mood has brightened considerably from a couple of weeks ago.

Here are the top 5 signs from Big Blue View commenters that things are well in Giant land.

1. You guys are reaching so much for stuff to nitpick or argue about that the height of Matt Dodge‘s punts is a major source of contention today. Not bad, if that’s the biggest complaint.
2. The Giants put up 34 points, racked up 414 total yards of offense, had 26 first downs to Houston’s 11, held the ball for 38:51, averaged 5.6 yards per play, won a game handily and you guys are STILL complaining about offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride. I love you guys, I really do. But, c’mon now.
3. No one has suggested that head coach Tom Coughlin has “lost” his team. Or brought up the dreaded “Bill Cowher should replace him” argument.
4. Someone posted a photo of Reby Sky. We have seen it before, a bunch of times, but it never gets tough to look at.
5. Even Cowboys fans have stopped by to congratulate us on how good the Giants look. And kvetch about their own 1-3 team. Ah, yes, a good day!

Here are a smattering of the stories floating around the Inter-Google today after our New York Giants 34-10 destruction of the Houston Texans Sunday. The difference in tone from two weeks ago is amazing.

Game Reviews

Let’s start here. It seems everybody tries to copy ‘Kudos & Wet Willies,’ but we know that it just can’t be done. Still, there is some good stuff in these game reviews.

• Pat Trains offers ‘Hits, Misses & Musings.’
• Ernie Palladino has ‘The Good & The Bad.’
• Mike Garafolo’s game story, as usual, is filled with interesting details only he seems able to come up with.
• WFAN says it’s OK to start getting excited about the Giants.

More good reads

Texans coach Gary Kubiak was “shocked” by the lopsided nature of Sunday’s game.

“I’m shocked by how we played,” Kubiak said, calling the Texans’ performance “undisciplined.”

“It was just total domination.”

SI’s Don Banks notes the difference in the Giants from just two weeks ago.

Two short weeks. That’s about all it takes in today’s NFL to completely flip the script. Two weeks ago, the New York Giants looked like an undisciplined disaster in a penalty-strewn loss at home to the Tennessee Titans, and the buzzards were already starting to circle the head of New York’s embattled coach, Tom Coughlin. Some observers even had Bill Cowher measuring the drapes in Coughlin office, and the opinions of one Tiki Barber were again in demand.

But a mere 14 days later, the Giants (3-2) look far more dominant than disastrous. A 17-3, sack-filled win over the visiting Bears last Sunday night got New York headed in the right direction, and on Sunday at Houston’s Reliant Stadium, the G-Men fairly well dismantled a Texans (3-2) team that was the toast of the NFL entering Week 3.

Running back Brandon Jacobs had a good day Sunday with 10 carries for 41 yards and a touchdown, and says his attitude is much better than it had been.

“My enthusiasm is right where it needs to be,” Jacobs said after the game. “I was kind of screwed up mentally last week. But I got past it and here we are today.”

Speaking of Jacobs, he had a tremendous quote about fellow running back Ahmad Bradshaw.

“I like watching Ahmad run because there are some things that he does that I look at Jerald (Ingram, the Giants’ running backs coach) and I’m like, ‘Jerald, how did he get five yards out of that? What the hell did he do to get five yards?’” said Jacobs. “I cannot do that. I can’t even draw that.”

Sage Rosenfels took over from Matt Dodge as holder for Lawrence Tynes on Sunday, and Tynes was appreciative of his work.

“He’s very fast putting the ball down, so I was very pleased with Sage,” Tynes said, adding: “I was never worried about the catch with Matt; it was more the placing. He didn’t place it as fast. Sage is very, very fast and I get to look at the ball forever.”

As MG noted, give Dodge some credit for handling the change honestly.

“I’m the only thing that changed in the equation,” Dodge said. “And the results showed today.”

The Chiefs came to play on defense as the Colts didn’t score a TD until there was only 4:02 left in the game.  Peyton Manning was not sharp today as he completed 26 of 44 passes for 244 yards with 0 TD passes and 1 INT.  Joseph Addai carried the ball 17 times for 50 yards (2.9 ypc) and he also caught 5 passes for 39 yards (7.8 avg) before leaving the game a big dinged up.  Mike Hart finished the game and he was solid for the Colts.  He carried the ball 11 times for 50 yards (4.5 ypc) with 1 TD run today.  WRs Reggie Wayne (6 rec, 75 yards), Pierre Garcon (6 rec, 57 yards) and Austin Collie (5 rec, 48 yards) led the way for the Colts in the passing game today.  The Colts finished up with 97 yards rushing on 31 carries (3.1 ypc) and they also completed 26 of 44 passes for 244 yards as they had possession of the football for 34:25 today.

The defense actually looked pretty solid overall for the Colts for once today.  LB Clint Session (10 tackles), S Antoine Bethea (7 tackles) and DE Robert Mathis (6 tackles, 1 tackle for a loss) led the way for the Colts’ D today.  The Chiefs finished up with 113 yards rushing on 27 carries (4.2 ypc) and they also completed 16 of 29 passes for 148 yards.  The Colts are now 3-2 on the year.

After throwing some ice on Tom Coughlin’s hot seat with last week’s victory over the Bears, the Giants went and buried the seat in Siberia today with a dominant performance on both sides of the ball in a 34-10 victory over the Texans.

The Giants defense held the NFL’s leading rusher, Arian Foster, to 25 yards on 11 carries. Overall, the Giants outgained the Texans 414 yards to 195 and dominated the time of possession, 31:29 to 19:46.

Hakeem Nicks was the star of the game, with 130 yards receiving on 12 catches, plus 2 TD’s. Anyone still doubting that this guy is on his way to becoming an elite NFL receiver? Eli Manning threw 2 more picks today (one of which led to a Texans TD by our old friend, Derrick Ward), but compensated by completing 27 passes for 297 yards and 3 scores.

Overall, it’s hard to find much to complain about with this game. This is two weeks in a row that the Giants have looked dominant (three if you take away all the dumb penalties and turnovers in the Titans game). Hopefully the Giants don’t suffer a letdown during a potential trap game next weekend against the Lions, with the Cowboys coming up the week after.

Ed will post a full “Kudos and Wet Willies” recap tomorrow morning. Until then, go Reds and Niners (make it a bad night for Philly!).

Giants vs. Texans 4th Quarter GameThread

The regular thread was getting too big. Talk in here for the remainder of the game.

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-2)	Game 5	HOUSTON TEXANS (3-1)
	VS.

Here is your Open Thread for today’s game. Enjoy! By the way, heard the meetup in Houston Saturday night was a great success. Let’s hope today’s game continues the trend.

Jonathan Bales

I just came across an interesting article at the Star-Telegram that I wanted to share.  Jennifer Floyd Engel argues that what wins football games for the Cowboys isn’t running the ball a lot or keeping balance on offense, but running the ball efficiently in an effort to do what they do best–pass the football.

She’s dead on.  Fans wrote in again and again after the Cowboys’ win over Houston that the Cowboys won because they kept offensive balance.  They ran the ball 27 times, and threw it just 30.  That is what wins football games, right?

Wrong.  The Cowboys won because they threw the ball down the field with ease, set up in part by running the ball efficiently.  This was from my post-game review:

Yesterday’s game is a perfect example of why people tend to overvalue the importance of the running game.  People usually look at statistics ex post facto, noting the correlation between running performance and winning percentage.  The two are certainly correlated, but correlation does not always equate to causation.  In fact, passing performance has been shown to be much, much more indicative of a team’s success than success on the ground.

The reason rushing yards are so closely linked to wins is simple: teams that arealready winning run the football.  That says nothing about how that team came to gain a lead, however.

We saw just this yesterday, as the Cowboys actually had much of their success through the air.  Yes, the early efficiency of the running game helped, but it wasn’t until late in the game that Dallas “committed” to the run.  Actually, in the middle of the game (with the game still a one-possession contest), the ‘Boys threw the ball on 21 of 28 plays.  They racked up a lot of their carries and yardage at the end of the contest, as they ran the ball on nine of the final 10 plays.

Don’t get me wrong. . .running the ball is a huge part of the game and can make everything else much easier.  But the days of offensive balance are gone.  What wins in the NFL (and particularly for your Dallas Cowboys) is airing it out early and often, and running the ball efficiently is much, much more important than running it often.

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The New York Giants face a much different challenge this week against the Houston Texans than they did last week against the Chicago Bears.

Last week the Giants defense knew it could simply go full throttle after the Bears quarterbacks as there was no running game to contend with. Mike Martz insistence on seven-step drops and minimal protection schemes played right into the Giants hands, and helped produce a 17-3 victory.

Different story this week. The Texans have a multi-faceted offensive attack, and a defense with superstars Mario Williams (a defensive end) and Brian Cushing (a linebacker) who could make life miserable for the Giants blockers.

Let’s look at the things the Giants must do in order to win in Houston on Sunday.

1. Control Arian Foster. The second-year running back leads the NFL with 537 yards rushing (134.2 per game), a whopping 126 yards more than Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendanhall. The Giants defense has done well against the two run-first teams they have played this season, Carolina with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and Tennessee with the great Chris Johnson. Difference is Houston has a legitimate quarterback in Matt Schaub and a great wide receiver in Andre Johnson, who expects to play despite an ankle injury. The Giants have to control first and second down, so they can make the Texans one-dimensional on third down. And they will have to do it without Keith Bulluck, Mathias Kiwanuka and, possibly, Kenny Phillips.
2. Contain Williams and Cushing. You know Cushing will be pumped up, playing his first game after serving a four-game substance abuse suspension. Williams is one of those nightmare matchups for left tackle David Diehl, and the Giants better help him. 
3. Run the football. The Texans are second in the league, giving up just 70.2 yards per game against the run. The Giants, though, has their best rushing week of the season last week against the Bears — who had been giving up just 39 yards rushing per game before meeting New York. Nullify the crowd, nullify the pass-rushing Williams, keep Cushing from making big plays and keep the ball away from Foster. Get the run game going. Maybe Bear Pascoe at fullback will help, and if you have to get Shawn Andrews in as an extra tight end do it. 
4. Will Andre Johnson play? The star wide receiver insists he will. How effective will he be if he does play on a bad ankle? Maybe the Giants should just hope he can’t run, because he is a 6-foot-3, 220-pound monster and the Giants never seem to be able to cover this type of wide receiver. Maybe their best shot is to have Terrell Thomas shadow him everywhere. I love Corey Webster, but these really big, strong guys simply overwhelm him.
5. Turnovers. Can we please, please, pretty please have a week where the other guys turn the ball over more than the Giants do? And where the Giants don’t give away points by turning the ball over right as they are about to score? Last week, the Tipped Ball Gods smiled on the Giants for a change. Maybe this week Big Blue can catch a break from the Turnover Gods. Better yet, Eli Manning will remember to only throw right-handed and Ahmad Bradshaw will remember ‘high and tight.’

More stuff to read

• Sports Network Giants-Texans overview
• When the Giants have the ball
• When the Texans have the ball
• Giants-Texans Fantasy Football focus

Jonathan Bales

It is quite obvious that Tony Romo’s improvisation skills are vital to the success of the Cowboys’ offense.  He’s used his quick feet and athleticism to make the offensive line look above average in pass protection for years.

The vast majority of Romo’s “schoolyard” plays–the ones where he jukes and dodges defenders, all the while keeping his eyes downfield in search of the big play–have come on blitzes.  Not only are there more defenders for Romo to elude (and thus less in coverage), but the quarterback is also underrated in his ability to diagnose defenses and promptly hit the open receiver.

Most of Romo’s reads get made before the snap.  How often do you see the play clock tick down to just one or two seconds before the Cowboys snap the ball?  This is because the team uses every available second to call the play(s), diagnose the defense, and make the necessary adjustments.  The Cowboys may not be great at halftime adjustments, but their in-play alterations are solid.

As I looked into my database of Cowboys’ 2010 offensive snaps, I noticed a trend that seemed to confirm these ideas.  I track not only when a defense blitzes, but also when they show a blitz pre-snap.  Most of Romo’s mistakes over the past few years have seem to come in two situations:

1. When defenses don’t blitz and sit back in zone coverage, forcing Romo to make accurate throws, and
2. When defenses show blitz pre-snap but back into a safe coverage

In the chart below, you can see that Romo has been incredible against the blitz this season.  All four of his touchdowns have come when the defense sends extra defenders, and he has yet to throw an interception.  His 121.9 overall passer rating versus the blitz is sensational.

Romo has been below average when teams do not blitz, however.  He has just a 67.8 overall passer rating in such situations through three games.  That number plummets to 28.3 when defenses act as if they will blitz but then send four or less defenders.

I think Romo’s failures stem from the importance he places on pre-snap reads.  When defenses show blitz but then don’t come, Romo’s original read is usually taken away.  He can then sometimes panic, and although I truly believe Romo is a tremendous talent and a Championship-level quarterback, he does not possess incredible accuracy.  He makes a lot of his plays by buying extra time to allow receivers to become wide open.

This would explain why he still does well when teams do not show blitz but then end up coming after him.  What he sees post-snap may differ from his pre-snap reads, but he possesses not only a quick release, but also the athleticism to make good things happen that may not have been designed in the original play.

Overall, it seems clear Romo performs much better when he “knows” whether or not a blitz is coming.  When teams do not blitz, his passer rating is 181 percent better when teams do not show it as opposed to feigning a blitz.  When defenses do send extra defenders, Romo’s passer rating is 24.1 points better if the defense “shows” it as opposed to disguising their intentions.

So you want to stop Romo?  Well, don’t blitz often, but feel free to act as if you will.  When you do blitz, you better disguise that as well.

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Amber Leigh, author of “The Blonde Side” here on DC Times, has been featured in DFW Magazine.  You can check out her interview with DFW.com here.

Among other things, A.L. described her perfect night out as “going to a Rangers game (where we win,) then heading to a wine bar for drinks and appetizers.  Somewhere more intimate, less crowded and less noisy.”

That information could be of use to you, since whoever buys the most of her 2011 The Blonde Side Calendar will win a date with A.L.  Visit TheBlondeSideStore.com for more details and to order your calendars today.

Follow Amber Leigh and “The Blonde Side” on Twitter.

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Jonathan Bales

The majority of sports picks you find online are basically useless.  They’re slapped together in minutes and have no real connection to the actual outcome of the games.

So I figured I’d give you some more useless projections.

In all seriousness, I will pick the games and totals each week and compare my results to those of other writers and sports types around the internet.  They’ll be listed in the “Game Picks” tab under the “Gameday” category.  I just want to show you guys how a real statistician does work. . .

Notes before reading

• An’@’ symbol is listed in front of the home team.
• Game lines alter slightly based on the source.
• The winner versus the spread is listed in bold.
• I don’t advocate gambling.  These picks are simply for fun (and to prove I’m better than 95 percent of “experts” at picking games).

Week 4 Results/Overall Results

8-6 straight up/36-26 overall

8-6 against the spread/33-26-3 overall

5-9 on over-under/30-31-1 overall

Week 4 Projected Score

@Baltimore 17 Denver 14 (+7.5)

I just can’t see this game being high-scoring, and as I’ve said before, I like underdogs (particular of a touchdown or more) in low-scoring contests.

Jacksonville 21 (PICK) @Buffalo 14

Jacksonville has actually been solid in a couple of games this year, while the Bills are simply horrid.

@Indianapolis 21 Kansas City 20 (+8.5)

When was the last time you saw a 2-2 team favored by this much over an undefeated one?  I know Indy is better, but they haven’t shown it yet.

@Cincinnati 13 Tampa Bay 10 (+7)

I am confident that Tampa won’t lose this one by more than a touchdown, even in Cincy.  Both defenses have been stout this season.

Green Bay 24 (-2.5) @Washington 14

Green Bay is so much better than Washington it’s unreal.  The Packers have seen a rash of injuries lately, but they should be favored by a touchdown here.

St. Louis 20 (+3) @Detroit 16

Who would have thought that by Week Five I’d be picking the Rams to win straight up as an underdog on the road.

Chicago 14 (+1.5) @Carolina 10

Even with Todd Collins starting at quarterback, I think the Bears will be able to score just enough to overtake Carolina.

@Houston 33 (-2.5) New York Giants 17

I’m more confident about this game than any other.  I use a formula to determine projected scores, and this is what came out.  Go Texans.

Atlanta 17 (-3) @Cleveland 10

I’m pretty shocked that Atlanta is only favored by a field goal in Cleveland.  The game will be low-scoring, but I think the Falcons would win by 3+ points about 80 percent of the time.

New Orleans 27 (-7) @Arizona 10

If New Orleans plays like they did last week, they could lose this game.  They won’t, and they won’t.

@Dallas 16 Tennessee 14 (+7)

I really hope the ‘Boys score more than 16 points, but Tennessee’s defense is really good.  I don’t think the Titans can score more than two touchdowns on Dallas, though.

San Diego 31 (-6) @Oakland 14

San Diego will either blow out the Raiders or lose in a close one. . .they’re that fluky.

Philadelphia 27 (+3.5) @San Francisco 14

Even with Kevin Kolb at quarterback, how is Philly an underdog against the 0-4 Niners?  I know San Fran is better than they’ve played, but Kolb can’t be that bad, can he?

@New York Jets 20 (-4) Minnesota 13

It will take some time for Favre and Moss to get on the same page.  Hopefully it will take more than two weeks (the Vikings play Dallas next week).

Over/Under

Baltimore/Denver UNDER 38.5

Jacksonville/Buffalo OVER 41

Indianapolis/Kansas City UNDER 44.5

Cincinnati/Tampa Bay UNDER 37.5

Green Bay/Washington UNDER 44

St. Louis/Detroit UNDER 43.5

Chicago/Carolina UNDER 35.5

Houston/New York Giants OVER 47

Atlanta/Cleveland UNDER 40.5

New Orleans/Arizona UNDER 45.5

Dallas/Tennessee UNDER 41.5

San Diego/Oakland OVER 44.5

Philadelphia/San Francisco OVER 37

New York/Minnesota UNDER 39

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The Chiefs come into this game as the only undefeated team in the NFL.  The Colts are coming home where they are 1-0 on the year.  Something has to give and here are the matchups in this game:

When the Colts have the ball:  The Colts gameplan has to be to come out throwing the ball.  They need to get a quick lead against the Chiefs and take them out of their offensive gameplan to protect the defense.  The Chiefs have 8 sacks this year so I look for them to blitz a lot in this game.  I see Dallas Clark having a big game as the Chiefs will likely have rookie  safety Eric Berry covering him.  Reggie Wayne will also probably have a good game on Sunday.   The Colts would also like to get Joseph Addai and Donald Brown involved in the offense if they get a quick lead in an effort to keep the Chiefs’ offense on the sideline.

When the Chiefs have the ball:  Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones are going to be the focal point of the Chiefs offense this Sunday.  The Chiefs are averaging 160.7 yards rushing and 4.6 yards per carry so I fully expect them to challenge the Colts D which is allowing 149.5 yards rushing per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  The Colts also must worry about rookie TE Tony Moeaki who has been Matt Cassel’s favorite receiver.  This is a bad matchup for the Colts defense as the Chiefs’ strengths on offense match up perfect with the weaknesses of the Colts.

PREDICTION:  COLTS 30, CHIEFS 24

The Colts can’t blame QB Peyton Manning for being 2-2 on the year.  The Colts are averaging 29.3 points, 335.5 yards passing and 411.0 total yards per game so far this year.  Colts’ opponents have been running the ball a lot more than usual in a effort to keep Peyton Manning and the Colts’ offense on the sidelines which makes his numbers so far even more incredible.  Manning has completed 120 of 172 passes (69.8%) for 1,365 yards with 11 TD passes and 1 INT (112.2 QB Rating) so far this year.  The Colts need to get the rest of the team up to speed because Manning can’t win all by himself.

Ugh! Like it or not, it seems Kenny Phillips and questions about his knee will go hand-in-hand all season.

KP turned up on the injury report as questionable after not practicing today, and Tom Coughlin said Phillips has a sprained MCL.

It’s not a surgical issue at all,” Coughlin said. “He’s had difficulty coming back from it, so we’ll see. We’ve still got two days, but he did not practice.”

Phillips tried to downplay the situation.

“It’s more of a precaution, nothing serious. They’re just trying to be smart right now,” Phillips said Friday. “I think we’re being conservative right now. I hope to play, looking forward to playing.”

Not good news, no matter how much of an “I’m not worried” attitude KP tries to put on it.

Want some good news? Texans star defensive end Mario Williams injured his groin Thursday at practice and is questionable Sunday.

With the New York Giants traveling to Texas this week to face the 3-1 Houston Texans, I reached out to the folks over at SB Nation’s Texans website, Battle Red Blog, for some insights about their team. Tim from BRB swapped questions with me, and his answers are below.

Head over to BRB to see my answers to his questions. And play nice — these guys are smart enough not to be Cowboys fans!

1. After watching the 10-sack performance by the Giants on Sunday against Chicago, are you at all worried about how your offensive line will hold up? I know you have given up 11 sacks thus far.

BRB:  Oh, I’m worried.  Although the Texans’ OL did a tremendous job protecting Matt Schaub last week in Oakland, 11 sacks (and several more hits on top of that) speaks for itself.  The Texans will still be without their starting LT, though Rashad Butler has performed admirably in relief of Duane Brown.  Eric Winston, Houston’s RT, has not been as consistent as he’s been in the past, and the interior of the OL can be pushed around.  Watching the Giants tee off on Jay Cutler made me laugh, until I realized that the Texans hosted the Giants the following week.

BRB:  No one–probably not even his mother–predicted Arian Foster would produce like he has thus far.  He looked good in the limited action he had at the end of last year, and he was certainly a force in the preseason, for whatever that’s worth.  But leading the league in rushing after the first quarter of the season?  Never saw it coming. 

Foster was on the practice squad for the vast majority of last year and didn’t see any game action until the last two games of the 2009 season, primarily because (1) Steve Slaton was phenomenal in his own right in ’08 and earned a lot of rope (with which he eventually hanged himself due to fumbles and injury) in ’09 and (2) Chris Brown, for reasons completely unknown to Texans fans (totally unfounded speculation centers on him having compromising pictures of Bob McNair or Gary Kubiak), was deemed a suitable Slaton replacement for far, far, far too long.  Even thinking about it now, I get angry.  Chris Brown made me hate the Cleveland Browns, simply because of his surname and the horror it recalls.  Now, though…it’s Arian Foster’s world, and we’re all just living in it.

BRB:  Many Texans fans expected that Cushing might be on some sort of a snap count Sunday, given that it’s his first real action since the preseason.  We appear to have grossly underestimated Cushing’s conditioning level</a>, so I would expect him to play as much as he deems himself able.  Which is to say, I doubt he misses many, if any, snaps.

In terms of making a difference, he’s a monster. While Cushing is not a defensive back and therefore can’t directly improve the coverage issues in the secondary, Cushing should make a huge impact on the Texans’ defense nonetheless.  He’s always around the ball, tackles better than almost anyone in the league, and I’d expect (hope?) he gets turned loose on a blitz or two.  Brian Cushing has been dreaming of this day for months, and it doesn’t appear he’s been taking it easy during his time off. Texans fans are expecting a HUGE game from #56 on Sunday.

BRB:  Justin Tuck, and it’s not even really close.  He’s a fiend, and he’s flexible enough to play some defensive tackle, which would make him even more valuable to the Texans.  I’m also intrigued by Kenny Phillips (when healthy) chiefly because the Texans have never really had a free safety, thus leading me to believe the concept is a figment of my imagination.  I think seeing an actual FS in a Texans uniform would be akin to seeing a unicorn gallop across a rainbow.

BRB:  Ed, I’m a Texans fan.  I won’t believe the Houston Texans are in the postseason until I see them in a playoff game.  Even then, I’ll be waiting for Roger Goodell to announce it was all some sort of clerical error.  My optimism, as always, is cautious and guarded.

The New York Giants are a quarter of the way through their NFL season, and stand at a pedestrian 2-2. Could be better, could be worse.

I looked at the Giants as a whole Thursday over at SB Nation New York. Check that out if you haven’t done so already. Today, let’s look at individual performances through the first four games of the season. In general, we all have an idea who we think has been good, and who we think has not. For some clarification, we will of course turn to the grades supplied by the hard-working folks at Pro Football Focus.

Before we start, a quick note about PFF. If you are not familiar with how PFF rates players, each player is graded on a scale ranging from +2 to -2 for every play he is on the field. There is, of course, some subjectivity and I always caution you take the numbers as a guide, not as gospel. The grades, however, are a good indicator of who is playing well and who isn’t.

So let’s get started.

I will break this down into offense, defense and special teams.

Offense

Through four games the Giants player with the best offensive grades is probably going to stun you. Right tackle Kareem McKenzie, a guy many of you have been begging the Giants to get rid of for a couple of seasons, has a +7.1 grade thru four games. McKenzie did have those two unforgivable unsportsmanlike conduct penalties against Tennessee, but otherwise has played well. The 10-year veteran is still a dominating run blocker, as evidenced by his +6.0 on run plays. Right now, only three tackles in the league grade out better than McKenzie.

The worst offensive player among Giants who play a significant number of downs? I bet you can guess this one. Left tackle David Diehl has a -11.5 rating, including a -9.7 in pass blocking. According to PFF, Diehl has given up five sacks, five quarterback hits and 10 pressures. The only tackles who grade lower are Denver’s Zane Beadles and San Diego’s Brandyn Dombrowski.

Other notable offensive numbers:

• Quarterback Eli Manning is +6.9. A good number, but it places him just 15th in the league.
• Ahmad Bradshaw is +5.2. A lot of that is his running, but he is also a surprising +3.4 as a pass blocker.
• Chris Snee grades out at +4.6, which places him sixth in the league among guards.
• Rich Seubert is playing better than I thought he could, and has a grade of +3.0 thus far.
• Hakeem Nicks has a +2.5, the best grade of the Giants wide receivers.
• Smith Smith has a -1.2, which is surprising. I wonder what the PFF analysts see that they don’t like.
• I have been harping on the futility of the Giants using Madison Hedgecock, and his -8.6 grade bears out how badly he has been playing. Only Tennessee’s Ahmard Hall (-10.4) grades worse among fullbacks. Houston’s Vonta Leach, who the Giants will see Sunday and who they tried to sign a few years ago, has a league-best mark of +5.7.

Defense

So much for the Giants not having any linebackers who can play. The best two grades from PFF for Giants defenders belong to Keith Bulluck (+7.0) and Jonathan Goff (+6.5). Michael Boley is +1.1.

The worst Giant defender thus far? Aaron Ross, and it isn’t even close. Ross has a -4.1 score, and he is the only defender other than Bruce Johnson (-0.4) to have a negative grade. I would guess teams have figured out that Ross is the guy to target in the secondary.

Among defensive lineman, Barry Cofield is +5.7, Chris Canty +5.1, Justin Tuck +3.9 and Osi Umenyiora is also +3.9.

In the secondary, Terrell Thomas is +5.5, Antrel Rolle +2.8, Corey Webster +2.4, Kenny Phillips + 1.9 and Deon Grant +1.7.

In limited snaps (just 53 in four games) No. 1 pick Jason Pierre-Paul is +0.4.

So, a lot to feel good about on the defensive side of the ball.

Special Teams

You would suspect these numbers would be ugly, and they are.

• Matt Dodge is -3.5, and only two punters are worse. One of those, Washington’s Josh Bidwell, is being replaced this week.
• Lawrence Tynes has been better on kickoffs, this season, but still ranks -2.9. I think, though, that is largely due to poor coverage costing the Giants field position.
• Darius Reynaud is -2.5 combined on kickoff and punt returns. That is worst in the NFL, according to PFF.

Jonathan Bales

Check out my top five quarterbacks and top five running backs in Dallas Cowboys history.  Note that all rankings are representative of each player’s time in Dallas only.

5.  Terrell Owens

Owens’ presence on this list despite only three seasons in Dallas speaks to the level of dominance he displayed during those years.  Though most fans will remember the negatives, Owens averaged nearly 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns as a Cowboy.  His 38 receiving touchdowns during his time in Dallas led the NFL.

Forward to the 1:00 mark below to view my favorite T.O. play ever. . .

4.  Drew Pearson

Pearson racked up 7,822 yards receiving and 48 touchdowns during his 11 seasons in Dallas.  He was a three-time All-Pro and was selected to the NFL’s 1970s All-Decade Team.

3.  Tony Hill

A lot of people would rank Hill behind Pearson, but I think Hill is one of the more underrated players in team history.  He actually totaled more yards (7,988) and touchdowns (51) than Pearson in one less season.  Some may claim that Hill played on some bad football teams, but both he and Pearson were part of one Super Bowl winning Cowboys squad.  Like Pearson, Hill was a three-time Pro Bowl selection.

2.  Bob Hayes

“Bullet” Bob Hayes was one of the fastest players in league history.  Considering that he played in the late 60s and early 70s, his 10.06 100 meter time is incredible. During his 10 seasons as a Cowboy, he compiled 7,295 receiving yards and 71 touchdowns, being named to three Pro Bowl teams and the Cowboys Ring of Honor.

1.  Michael Irvin

This is a no-brainer, but a lot of people forget that Irvin actually started his career quite slowly in Dallas.  In his first three seasons, Irvin totaled only 1,445 yards and 12 touchdowns.  Those numbers rose to 11,904 and 65 by the time he retired.

More importantly, Irvin was the heart of three Super Bowl champion football teams.  Without his field presence and leadership, I doubt the Cowboys would have won a single Championship in the 90s.

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Don’t look for another 10-sack performance this Sunday when the New York Giants face the Houston Texans. The Giants know they will be facing a much different type of offense than they saw against the Chicago Bears.

“This week, they have a tremendously talented running team so it would easy for us to think we’re just going to rush upfield and they’re going to get 300 yards rushing,” Justin Tuck said. “Our goal is to put them in third and long situations and then we’ll have opportunities for sacks. This team does a great job of creating third and ones, third and twos. We have to create down and distance where we can get after them,” Tuck said.

Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell echoed Tuck’s sentiments.

“This is really a different offense that we’re going to face. It’s a run type offense. They execute the play action pass, they try to stay on schedule with not putting themselves in long yardage situations, so it’s a little bit of a different philosophy going into this football game than last week,” Fewell said. “It is definitely the most balanced team we’ve faced. Solid, solid run game, excellent pass game off the play action, they can drop back and throw it, so it will be a challenge for us, but I think that we can rise to the occasion. I think we can play well against these guys.”

The Giants will have to defend the NFL’s leading rusher, Arian Foster, and former Giants running back Derrick Ward, without veteran linebacker Keith Bulluck. His turf toe injury has not healed sufficiently to allow him to play.

When Bulluck did not play against the Bears, Deon Grant played most of the game as a third safety. Bulluck’s backup at linebacker, Clint Sintim, played just four snaps. Fewell expects an expanded role for Sintim against the more balanced Texans.

“Sintim will play a lot. Yes, he’s going to play a lot in this football game,” Fewell said. “he’s put in an excellent week of practice. We’ve liked the way he’s focused and the way he’s taken on the challenge of, hey I’m going to step up and do my part. So we’ve just got to wait until Sunday to see if he can fulfill that role.”

Here are a few more Giants-related notes for your Friday morning.

It seems like everyone is taking shots at the NFC East after the first four games of the season.

Even ESPN’s NFC East blogger Matt Mosley is having a hard time defending his turf.

For years, we could turn up our collective nose at the smell coming from the NFC West and AFC West, but now the division that Landry and Gibbs built is in similar shape. How else do you describe a division that has three teams tied for the lead at 2-2, and the Cowboys sitting “pretty” at 1-2. (Yes, I know the Skins are 2-0 in the division, but just work with me folks.) Against my best judgment, I’ve now seen all four teams in person.

This isn’t the first time the NFC East has gone through a lull. The Redskins, Cowboys and Giants all faded in December 2008 while the Eagles made an improbable run to the NFC title game, which forced fans to endure Donovan McNabb for another season. And the Redskins and Giants were both dreadful in 2009. I guess you could say there has been a trend over the past couple of seasons of the division’s reputation exceeding its production.

But this is the first time I can remember looking at all four teams and seeing only mediocrity.

Adam Schein of FOX Sports had similar sentiments about the division, and had this to say about the Giants.

The Giants are perplexing. They showed off their talent in Week 1 against Carolina. They embarrassed themselves in every phase against the Colts. The Giants imploded against the Titans, a game marred by too many foolish penalties and turnovers. And the Giants stopped the “bring in Bill Cowher” talk by manhandling the Bears offensive line in the single least aesthetically pleasing game of the 2010 season. And let’s be honest: You can credit the Giants for surviving the slop, but that win was about the Bears offensive line and Mike Martz being totally lost.

Before the season, I thought the Giants would win 10 games and capture the division. I am not so sure they are capable of a run. The offensive line has severely underachieved. They have a tough spot in Houston. And, frankly, it is not worth going through the schedule. The Giants have more talent than the Titans. It’s just a matter of whether Tom Coughlin can get this team focused week to week.

There was lots of wild speculation here Thursday because former Giant offensive lineman Guy Whimper worked out for the team Thursday. Face it, gang, Will Beatty is hurt. Shaun O’Hara is hurt. Until Thursday the Giants weren’t sure Adam Koets could play this week. The Giants might need to find a lineman off the street at some point, and checking on Whimper’s status is just due diligence by the organization.

If you love Football Outsiders, you will enjoy their analysis of how the Giants achieved some of their pressure on Jay Cutler last Sunday.

Giants At The Quarter-Pole

‘New York Giants Talk’ Airs Tonight

Jonathan Bales

With the Cowboys’ matchup with the Tennessee Titans looming, it is hard to not imagine what Dallas might look like on offense if Chris Johnson was their starting running back.  Remember, the Cowboys bypassed Johnson (and Rashard Mendenhall) for Felix Jones in the 2008 Draft.  Now, Johnson is widely considered one of the top players in the entire NFL, while Jones has failed to live up to expectations.

Jones does enough to thrill Cowboys fans and keep them wanting more–a big run here, a nice block there.  But overall, Jones hasn’t shown the adequate health or durability (even when healthy) to handle the sort of load for which many fans yearn.

Some claim that Jones isn’t built for a heavy workload, but why not?  Is it due solely to his injury history?  Because his build is that of a workhorse back, not a 10-15 touch player.  Plus, let’s not forget that Johnson–the league’s leading rusher last year–weighs just 191 pounds.

In 2010, Jones has been supremely disappointing.  But all is not lost.  Jones’ talent and unique skill set make it imperative that the ‘Boys find a way to get him on a roll.  Here’s how they can do that. . .

1.  Run more counters and tosses.

I don’t want to make it seem as though I think Jones is only an outside runner, because I don’t.  I do think he’s capable of running between the tackles with great effectiveness (I actually think his one-cut style would make him a great fit for a zone blocking scheme).

The numbers, however, say that Jones needs to run more counters.  Last year, Jones averaged 10.0 yards-per-carry on 22 counters.  Take a look at my in-depth study on Cowboys counters.

In 2010, Dallas has run just four counters (only three to Jones).  For a team that averaged 7.9 yards-per-carry on all counters last year, that needs to change.  Counters have the potential to become big plays, and we all know who the Cowboys’ home run hitter is in the backfield.

The same can be said of toss plays, which the Cowboys run infrequently.  Yes, counters and tosses are “risky” run plays that can sometimes go for losses, but the potential reward is worth the risk in most situations.  A 1st and 10 counter or toss is quite different than the same play on 3rd and 1.

And if you need visual proof of Jones’ effectiveness on counters and tosses, watch the first two plays below. . .

2.  Forget using Jones as a wide receiver.

Analysts claim the Cowboys need to use Jones out wide or in the slot to find ways to get the ball in his hands.  Maybe I’m missing something, but Jones’ is not a polished receiver.  He runs poor routes, doesn’t have particularly soft hands, and isn’t an upgrade over any of the Cowboys’ receivers.

Why replace Dez Bryant, or even Kevin Ogletree, with Jones?  Contrary to popular belief, Jones has never been a Reggie Bush-type player.  There is a way to get the ball in Jones’ hands through the air, however. . .

3.  Design more traditional screen passes for Jones.

The Cowboys don’t run a ton of screens, which is actually reason alone to run more: defenses aren’t generally anticipating them.

This season, the Cowboys have run 11 screens, but only six of those were to running backs.  Further, the ‘Boys have run only three total screens in the past two games.

Jones has been targeted on just three screens (one of which was a quick screen with Jones lined up as the ‘X’ receiver).  Of the two traditional screens, the Cowboys have gained 24 yards.  By the way, Jones was targeted on only eight screen passes all of last year.

Even though Jones isn’t a natural receiver, running screen passes is a totally different skill than lining up out wide.  There’s no real route-running involved, and he doesn’t need to have strong, receiver-like hands: he just needs to catch the ball and use his vision and speed to get downfield.  Actually, you saw the big-play potential of a screen to Jones in Houston when he scampered down the field for a huge gain (which was called back due to a needless block in the back).

4.  Add a new wrinkle to the Wildcat.

I know many readers of DCT don’t like the Wildcat (or “Razorback,” if you prefer), but I love it.  Even with the inherent predictability of the formation, it was the second-most efficient running formation for Dallas in 2009 (in terms of yards-per-carry).  That’s quite impressive considering 31.3 percent of all Wildcat plays came inside the opponent’s 10-yard line.  Here is a detailed article on why the ‘Boys should run more Wildcat this year.

The Wildcat can be even more effective if Jones is a legitimate option to receive the ball.  With him sweeping across the field pre-snap (which the Cowboys worked on in training camp), Tashard Choice will have the option to either hand it off to Jones or keep it for himself.  Even if the call is designated before the snap, the defense will have to stay honest.  Not only is the Wildcat a great opportunity for Jones to take one to the house, but his presence will also open up more running lanes for Choice.

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The Colts have signed 27-year old safety Aaron Francisco.  Francisco played in 10 games for the Colts last year and he had 16 tackles.  He has now played in 63 games in his five years in the NFL and he has 159 tackles, 4 passes defensed, 1 forced fumble and 2 INTs.  It was smart to bring Francisco back as he knows the system and the Colts are desperate at safety with Bob Sanders and Melvin Bullitt out of action.

The Colts have placed 24-year old rookie RB Devin Moore on the Injured Reserve List ending his season due to a neck injury.  Moore played in the first four games for the Colts this year and he carried the ball 2 times for -2 yards (-1.0 ypc).  But the bigger role he served was as the kickoff returner.  Moore returned 12 kickoffs for 257 yards (21.4 avg) for the Colts this year.  CB Justin Tryon will replace Moore on kickoff returns.  He has returned 3 kickoffs for 76 yards (25.3 avg) so far this year for the Colts.

Here are a few New York Giants notes for you on a Thursday morning.

The Washington Redskins have signed veteran punter Hunter Smith, which should be a big deal to Giants punter Matt Dodge. Smith was in New Jersey this week working out for the Giants

John Clayton says Randy Moss‘ presence in Minnesota means the NFC East will only send one team to the playoffs.

“No wild card will come out of the NFC West because odds are against the winner of that division winning more than eight games,” writes The Professor. “If the NFC East settles into an average division with a bunch of teams between eight and 10 wins, then the hopes for an NFC East wild card would be pinned on the failures in the NFC North, figuring that the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons have shown enough to indicate two playoff teams will come from that division.”

Brian Cushing says he is ‘back and ready to go’ for Houston this weekend against the Giants.

“It [his suspension] was tough to watch, but I’m back and ready to go. I don’t feel like there’s any pressure on me. I think I bring attitude and speed and (playmaking) ability to our defense. I feel like I’m 99.5 percent ready to play as far as being sharp in all areas, and I’ll be 100 percent on Sunday.”

Tiki Barber says he knew he would get booed at the Giants Ring Of Honor ceremony.

The Giants are still not sure about the long-term status of Mathias Kiwanuka.

“We are going to wait,” Coughlin said, “but there will be information forthcoming from the medical people that will tell us what the extent of it is, where the so-called waiting period would end and when the decision would have to be made.”

Through four games it is looking like another disappointing season for wide receiver Ramses Barden.

“The best I can do is what I can control – give a hundred percent effort in practice in all phases. I’m confident the opportunities will come and I’ll take advantage of it,” Barden said. “Like any competitive person, I want to play as much as possible. I can only control what’s in my hands. If it’s in my hands to play, that’s what it is.”

Barden wants answers, but he probably already has them. After all, he didn’t dress for most of his rookie season because he didn’t contribute on special teams. Surely that’s still the case for a team that prefers to dress only backups who will play a role on kick returns and coverage.

“I’m sure it factors into it, but I haven’t sat down with anybody and said, ‘Here’s what’s going on. Here’s this and that,’” Barden said. “My approach has been if somebody tells me, ‘This is what your role is going to be today in practice,’ to master that and try to become an expert that day in that fashion.”

A few afternoon New York Giants notes for you.

• Coach Tom Coughlin says hold those alarm bells on Kenny Phillips.
  
  “We started to actually do a little bit less with him on Wednesdays. We started that last week. He calls it tired and sore. It’s not – according to the training room – it has nothing to do with the past surgery or anything of that nature. We’re just trying to maintain it.”
• Coughlin also said Wednesday that the team will not wait indefinitely for Mathias Kiwanuka‘s neck injury to subside.

  Really all we’re doing is getting information from the doctors – that’s all. Time frame – I think that there will be a time frame if it’s a wait deal and then we’ll have to – once that time frame is met, then a decision would have to be made.

• Ahmad Bradshaw says he “just has to buy into the high and tight” after losing three fumbles in four games.

  “I’ve just got to buy into the “high and tight.” It wasn’t high and tight when I fumbled the other night, and this is something I’ve just got to work on. I usually have it that way. I just got lackadaisical.”

• Houston coach Gary Kubiak, obviously, is well aware of the Giants 10-sack effort Sunday night against Chicago.

  “We have our work cut out for us. Obviously, it was special up front with the things they do and with the people they do it with. In this league, everything starts with trying to find a way to keep your quarterback upright,” Kubiak said. “That performance last week was one for the ages, it was unbelievable. We’re going to have to hunker down and find a way to keep our quarterback upright the best way we can and go from there. It definitely starts with protecting the quarterback.”

The Blonde Side ™
First Down Top 10 List
Highest Paid NFL Players in 2010

By: Amber Leigh Hartman

10.  Julius Peppers – Chicago Bears

Coming in at a cool $20 mil with no endorsements

9.  Jason Smith – St. Louis Rams

Beating out Peppers with $20.5 mil minus endorsements

8.  Darrius Heyward-Bey – Oakland Raiders

Cashing in at $21.4 mil with no endorsements

7.  Brett Farve – Minnesota Vikings

Raking in a total of $24 mil with a salary of $17 mil and $7 mil in endorsements

6.  Albert Haynesworth – Washington Redskins

Topping off at $24.7 mil with a salary of $24.6 mil and $0.1 mil in endorsements

5.  Terrell Suggs – Baltimore Ravens

Splitting the list at $24.9 mil with no endorsements

4.  Phillip Rivers– San Diego Chargers

Pulling in $25.8 mil with a salary of $25.6 mil and $0.2 mil in endorsements

3.  Eli Manning – New York Giants

Coming in at No. 3 with a measly $26.5 mil– a salary of $19.5 mil and $7 mil in endorsements

2.  Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions

Barely missing the top spot at $27.6 mil with a salary of $26.9 mil and $0.7 mil in endorsements

1.  Payton Manning – Indianapolis Colts

Beating out his brother Eli to be the highest-paid NFL player in 2010 at $30.8 mil–a salary of $15.8 mil and $15 mil in endorsements

——————————————–

Information courtesy of Kevin Wood

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